The Iran War Is A Mess

The Iran war enters its ninth week today. Originally touted as a couple of days’ excursion that the administration insisted wasn’t a war, the conflict has become a mess. There are no clear goals and no benefits to the American people.

At the start of the war, it was claimed that Iran was planning to attack the US first, which is why America bombed the nation. The administration later admitted that Iran only planned to attack in response to being attacked. Then there was the claim about freeing the Iranian people from their oppression. Bombing an elementary school, bridges, and threatening to blow up every power plant in the country shows it was never about the Iranian people.

Another claim was that the attacks were necessary to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, something we’ve heard was imminent since the 1990s. US intelligence said that Iran was not working on a nuclear weapon, and we had supposedly destroyed their nuclear capabilities with bunker-busting bombs just eight months earlier.

And the final reason was that it was about regime change, but the Trump administration has given up on that idea and is attempting to negotiate with those in charge. Those negotiations continue to go nowhere, despite Trump claiming he’s already won and the peace deal is practically agreed to. At the same time, Trump has extended the deadline for Iran to agree to a peace deal five times, each time issuing threats, before giving up and saying there was no rush.

While all of this has been going on, the US has burned through critical munitions, leaving us with shortages that will leave America unable to properly respond if major conflicts break out elsewhere. Analysts aren’t sure we would even have the resources to defend Taiwan if China invaded. And reports indicate it could take six years to replenish these stockpiles, weakening America’s ability to project force around the globe.

Those shortages are also causing America to stop military deliveries to allies that have already purchased arms. This is increasing tensions and prompting allies to look elsewhere for new deals. This will likely have a long-term negative effect on the United States ability to obtain new military deals with NATO nations.

Despite all of the bombings, threats, and negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and reports indicate it could take up to six months to clear the mines AFTER peace is achieved. That means ongoing disruption to trade routes and higher prices for the rest of the year.

After a brief moment of gas prices reducing by a few cents from hopes that a peace deal was just around the corner, prices are rising once again. Inflation spiked last month to the highest level in years, and wholesale inflation is even higher this month, suggesting we will continue to see rising prices in the months to come.

Trump never had a proper plan heading into this war. He thought he could bomb Iran for a few days and then they’d turn around and agree to peace. Instead, they fought back, they found ways to create economic pain for a country they can’t defeat militarily. Iran has been able to show the world the trouble it can cause when attacked, while the United States looks incapable of using its military might to decisively win a war against a weaker opponent.

In the end, America will be lucky to get a deal with Iran that is as good as the nuclear deal we had previously. The deal that Trump tore up in his first term. We didn’t go to war, lose 13 servicemembers, have hundreds more wounded, and have our military bases throughout the Gulf attacked to achieve that deal, because we had leaders who knew how to negotiate.

Meanwhile, Iran, which was not pursuing a nuclear weapon, learned it doesn’t need one to be taken seriously. It repeatedly penetrated Israel’s Iron Dome. It attacked the energy infrastructure of other Middle East nations. It showed it has the capacity to disrupt global markets to a degree where US alliances are fracturing, US citizens are outraged at their government, and the West’s adversaries are empowered.

America may end up with a deal limiting Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon, but in exchange, Iran showed the world how dangerous it can be.